tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post2536110201792665358..comments2024-03-28T15:22:57.131+00:00Comments on Who Attacked Ghouta?: Estimating the UMLACA RangeAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16560859391032391947noreply@blogger.comBlogger227125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-34573808684218696192021-08-28T15:53:23.034+01:002021-08-28T15:53:23.034+01:00Thanks for such a nice content. Apppreciate it :)
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They chose the '6 foot' one because its external dimensions matched the external dimensions of the Volcano fin support tube and fins.<br /><br />In fact the motor extends inside the payload perhaps another 60cm giving an overall motor and nozzle length approaching 2 metres - perhaps a motor from the '9 foot' Grad' or some other variant?<br /><br />We know from the Liwa Al-Islam videos that the motor burn time for the two plug variant is 1.6-1.8 seconds. This is measurably shorter than the observed burn time for the HE variants which indicates they have different motors - not to mention the dimensional differences of the payload and motor tube.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-46302159896007524492013-12-29T16:33:28.937+00:002013-12-29T16:33:28.937+00:00A new estimate of the range has been published by ...A new estimate of the range has been published by Prof. Theodore A. Postol from MIT and Richard M. Lloyd from Tesla Laboratories:<br /><a href="http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/998628/assessment-of-construction-and-performance-of.pdf" rel="nofollow">Assessment of Construction and Performance of the Chem Munition Used in Damascus on August 21, 2013</a> – Theodore A. Postol, Richard M. Lloyd, December 26, 2013<br /><br />It is reviewed by C. J. Chivers in the <i>New York Times</i><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/29/world/middleeast/new-study-refines-view-of-sarin-attack-in-syria.html?pagewanted=all" rel="nofollow">New Study Refines View of Sarin Attack in Syria</a> – C. J. Chivers, <i>New York Times</i>, December 28, 2013<br /><i>A new analysis of rockets linked to the nerve-agent attack on Damascus, Syria, in August has concluded that the rockets were most likely fired by multiple launchers and had a range of about three kilometers, according to the two authors of the analysis.</i><br /><br />The article also confirms what I said long ago: the UMLACA uses a standard GRAD rocket engine.<br /><i>“The dimensions of the inserted rocket motor very closely match the dimensions in the 9M22-U artillery rocket,” Dr. Postol wrote in an email on Thursday. “If the inserted motor is the same as the standard 9M22-U motor, then the maximum range of the munition would be no more than three kilometers, and likely less.”<br />That would be less than the ranges of more than nine kilometers calculated separately by The New York Times and Human Rights Watch in mid-September, after the United States had dropped its push for a military strike. Those estimates had been based in part on connecting reported compass headings for two rockets cited in the United Nations’ initial report on the attacks.<br />The published range for a 9M22-U rocket is about 20 kilometers, or 12.4 miles. But the Syrian rockets carried a bulky and apparently flat-nosed warhead — Dr. Postol called it “a soup can” — whose range would have been undermined by its large mass and by drag, the authors said.<br />Depending on the motors propelling different Grad models, the projected maximum ranges can vary from 2.5 to 3.5 kilometers, or 1.5 to 2.2 miles, Dr. Postol and Mr. Lloyd said.</i>Petri Krohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12630751579069253718noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-38760557356610041722013-11-29T03:03:50.131+00:002013-11-29T03:03:50.131+00:00Thanks guys! Added to this post, and geolocated it...Thanks guys! Added to this post, and geolocated it in a new post.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16560859391032391947noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-85526017445177363672013-11-28T19:45:49.088+00:002013-11-28T19:45:49.088+00:00Sorry,, :-)
One point about range, it's quite...Sorry,, :-)<br /><br />One point about range, it's quite dependent on launch angle and flight time.<br /><br />In the linear region flight time is directly related to range. So a 20 second flight will go twice as far as a 10 second flight - give or take. This is seen in many rocket artillery tables.<br /><br />Flight time is a not particularly linear function of launch elevation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-15356815571998049932013-11-28T19:23:29.660+00:002013-11-28T19:23:29.660+00:00And I noticed that Mr. Wood beat me to it. I shoul...And I noticed that Mr. Wood beat me to it. I should have checked the comments before I posted. My mistake. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-10528398524229012702013-11-28T19:09:33.222+00:002013-11-28T19:09:33.222+00:00I forgot to add - I was just thinking that it migh...I forgot to add - I was just thinking that it might come in handy when assessing the capabilities other similar rockets. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-2551255488771970192013-11-28T19:07:54.004+00:002013-11-28T19:07:54.004+00:00Here is a fresh video of a launch of some kind of ...Here is a fresh video of a launch of some kind of crude looking Eskimo-style rocket:<br />http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=2aa_1385661490<br /><br />The range at that firing angle can probably be easily calculated as there is visual confirmation of a ground hit downrange and a clear sound delay. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-80986525471871279772013-11-28T18:33:49.176+00:002013-11-28T18:33:49.176+00:00A very new video of the NDF 'volcano' miss...A very new video of the NDF 'volcano' missile giving accurate time of flight and range for the HE variant.<br /><br />http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=2aa_1385661490<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-25105082014017378462013-11-17T23:04:02.853+00:002013-11-17T23:04:02.853+00:00The nozzle is smaller in diameter (apx 105mm outer...The nozzle is smaller in diameter (apx 105mm outer diameter) than the 122mm GRAD rocket motor outer diameter. Remember that the 122mm rocket motor used in the UMLACA has its entire fin assembly removed. Also, watch the video where they remove the outer rocket motor tube from the 122mm rocket motor. In the video they remove the outer gray tube (with the thicker fin section) by sliding it rearward right over the smaller diameter nozzle assembly. Once the outer gray tube has been removed they next remove the smaller diameter nozzle assembly from the 122mm rocket motor. This info and much more details on this particular piece of the puzzle have been covered in previous posts. Hope this helps. <br /><br />Note; you could do it the way you describe but that would be an additional step. More importantly removing the nozzle assembly from an unfired rocket motor to perform this additional step would be a safety/reliability concern and could possibly compromise/damage the rocket motor igniter/firing lead assembly. <br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01718716337874488769noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-82837756810109871862013-11-17T18:54:27.373+00:002013-11-17T18:54:27.373+00:00You cannot assemble the Eskimo in that order. The ...You cannot assemble the Eskimo in that order. The fin section is thicker steel than the rest of the outer tube. It does not allow the nozzle or the motor sections to pass through. You must insert the motor sections from the top (as in the video) and screw in the nozzle from the bottom, so that the fin section is squeezed in between. This is similar to the assembly of a regular 122 mm GRAD.Petri Krohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12630751579069253718noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-42069028058193939552013-11-17T02:29:07.616+00:002013-11-17T02:29:07.616+00:00Well done Amund. I like it.Well done Amund. I like it.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01718716337874488769noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-54067790684121368052013-11-17T02:11:06.883+00:002013-11-17T02:11:06.883+00:00I think these are all quotes of this piece:
http:/...I think these are all quotes of this piece:<br />http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/quitting-over-syria/<br />and they probably just used the wrong word, intending to refer to satellite sensors or something.<br /><br />These launches were found to be related to a conventional attack (see here: <br />http://whoghouta.blogspot.com/2013/09/the-us-intelligence-assessment_19.html<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16560859391032391947noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-92084324887747795932013-11-17T01:49:53.310+00:002013-11-17T01:49:53.310+00:00I noticed an interesting snippet that's been u...I noticed an interesting snippet that's been used in a number of alternative US news sources with the general phrase<br /><br />"Other intelligence cited in passing by the White House on the trajectories and telemetry of rockets that may have been used in the attack"<br /><br />e.g. <br /><br />http://www.globalresearch.ca/fixing-intel-around-the-syria-policy/5358147<br /><br />Now as far as I can tell all Eskimo style missiles in the Syrian inventory have no telemetry function. They are basically dumb artillery rockets with shorter than usual range.<br /><br />Any idea how this telemetry concept got introduced by "The White House" and was it part of some deliberate disinformation exercise?<br /><br />Actually, taking a look at the whole field of information and disinformation on Ghouta would be fascinating. How many definitive statements at the start turned out to be false and/or fudged to some end?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-82582335434194387792013-11-15T13:31:37.396+00:002013-11-15T13:31:37.396+00:00Awesome! Updated.Awesome! Updated.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16560859391032391947noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-60097605545571060092013-11-15T13:29:55.047+00:002013-11-15T13:29:55.047+00:00Got it. Thanks!Got it. Thanks!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16560859391032391947noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-11054801631458819462013-11-15T09:39:45.681+00:002013-11-15T09:39:45.681+00:00And finally, after a week of testing, failing and ...And finally, after a week of testing, failing and insanely long renders: The UMLACA burst simulation.<br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMZUM2oYVds&feature=youtu.be<br /><br />The yellow stuff is meant to represent the small charge opening the cannister. The green goo is meant to represent whatever fluid there is inside the warhead. The spread pattern is probably way off, this is beyond my skills to simulate - and its very heavy stuff to calculate for the 3D-software. But if the purpose is to illustrate how the warhead functions, it's not too shabby, I hope.Amund Hesbølhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09989927930117347129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-41453735461770185932013-11-15T02:41:48.197+00:002013-11-15T02:41:48.197+00:00Sasa wawa; It depends on the size of the HE booste...Sasa wawa; It depends on the size of the HE booster and warhead casing thickness. The appearance of the casing could go from a slightly split/mushroomed nose section/fuze well to completely splinter into large bulky outer casing chunks. If a HE booster and HE burster are used together to explosively open a warhead to dispense/disperse it payload you will find large chunky pieces of the warhead outer casing nearby, 100% of the time. These large fragments, like from a WP type bursting warhead, will not have the same appearance as fragments that have received explosive stresses placed on them from a high order detonation of a completely HE filled warhead. There is a night and day difference in the appearance of the fragments from these different type explosive events and its easy to identify what type warhead, in general, produced the fragments. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01718716337874488769noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-27643927325185328982013-11-15T00:59:44.800+00:002013-11-15T00:59:44.800+00:00Jody - Thanks for the detailed response.
So if I u...Jody - Thanks for the detailed response.<br />So if I understood correctly, a HE booster is more likely, which would mean we shouldn't be able to find this casing intact. Right?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16560859391032391947noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-20843943574961849452013-11-14T20:31:48.054+00:002013-11-14T20:31:48.054+00:00It looks like Al Jazeera have cooked up a theory o...It looks like Al Jazeera have cooked up a theory of their own on the subject. And they've almost remade The Minority Report in order to make their point. It would be great to have a translation of the vid, but from the looks of it they're questioning the range of UMLACAS, and the UN report in general. The steel disc: not even Brown Moses has a clue, it could very well be a brake disc or something just lying around. <br /><br />I spotted an interesting comment below (google translated): <br />"The good fortune I know the English language and I have a copy of the report and I do not need to take the talk of the island ..<br /><br />If you Tmantm in the picture in ( 8:14 ), you will find that the rocket 's tail does not match . Low accuracy but can say for sure that there are no circular ring surrounding the tail wings .. As well as remnants of the rocket images show that the payment nozzle at the bottom of the rocket are outside the body of the rocket . While there are 330 rocket nozzle inside the body<br /><br />Rocket filmed opposition lookalike and but not يطابقه . Even in size, the rockets do not compare .<br /><br />Also " the theory of the corners " and that potential was , no توكد and does not deny the possibility that the missiles came from behind or in front of the headquarters of the fourth division of the Republican Guard . And therefore did not consider the final report of this evidence . But القوها to instruct me report not displeasing states that sent them there<br /><br />As well as Angela Keane admitted on the screen RT English two things mockery of this investigation to its roots . First: samples taken from people proved their exposure to sarin , but the (each) in environmental samples proved that there is no trace of sarin gas ! This is amazing.<br /><br />Second: that the team did not inspect the bodies of the martyrs , and did not take samples of them, and this is a must in any investigation has to do with the causes of the death unknown<br /><br />As the party sent a message to the Russian Mission Director and investigators have been ignored . And has stated the following: Russia declares that the second type of missiles , which the investigators decided it 's Soviet - made , never sold to Syria ! And have been sold to three Arab countries including Libya<br /><br />Add to this briefing journalists Belgian , Italian , and who liberated after a chemical attack that they had heard one of their captors speak English for chemotherapy that is located before the attack and are subject to kidnapping.<br /><br />The Interfax news agency reported that Russia 's official agency said on condition not to be named , that Russian intelligence reports linking Saudi Arabia one of the armed groups which it accuses Russia of using chemical weapons .<br /><br />And said that the gunmen may be carried out this work to provoke the international forces to attack Syria .. Or they received rockets and fired them without the knowledge of its kind."Amund Hesbølhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09989927930117347129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-27261217290080456552013-11-14T15:17:24.036+00:002013-11-14T15:17:24.036+00:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01718716337874488769noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-30123042196935367652013-11-14T13:37:14.258+00:002013-11-14T13:37:14.258+00:00Sasa wawa; Wow, incendiary warhead/munitions cover...Sasa wawa; Wow, incendiary warhead/munitions covers almost an unlimited amount of material and if you add in improvised incendiary devices the sky is your limit. I will cover only a little general information on how production type incendiary initiation systems function and try to limit it to what we have seen in Syria. Normally Incendiary munitions will have either a initiation train that is all high explosive or a initiation train that is all low explosive but there are some incendiaries that us a combination initiation train of both high and low explosive. In Syria we have generally seen three main types of incendiary munitions.<br /><br /><br />General Information on Production Type Incendiary Munitions That Have Been Seen in Syria (that I am aware of):<br /><br />1. WP, PWP, TEA, TEB (note we have not seen TEA or TEB yet); These are incendiaries that spontaneously ignite on contact with air. WP and PWP warheads are normally used for screening, spotting, signaling, and its incendiary effect. In Syria they seem to be mainly used for the incendiary effect.<br /><br /> a. Initiation system; In almost all cases the detonator, booster, and burster are high explosive. Example of a hybrid system that contains both a low and high explosive initiation train would be the M825 155mm base ejection WP round. <br /><br /><br />2. Napalm/liquid fuel warheads/bombs; This type munitions filler will normally be initiated by a fuzed igniter assembly that contains WP or Magnesium Teflon Pellet. Napalm/liquid fuel are mainly used for its incendiary effect.<br /><br /> a. Initiation system; The fuze that goes in the igniter normally contains all of the explosive train. The fuze detonator an booster (fuze has a large booster which serves the same purpose as a burster) are high explosive. <br /><br /><br />3. Incendiary submunitions; This type bomblet filler is thermite or thermite/jelled fuel mixed and some have a time delayed high explosive burster installed. <br /><br /> a. Initiation system; The initiation system is low explosive. Some bomblets have a high explosive time delayed burster designed to detonate an scatter the hot molten puddle of thermite after a pre-determined delay.<br /><br /><br />Note; This is very general info and only related to Syria. You must keep in mind that there are lots and lots and lots of munitions that only use low explosive initiation system or combination systems (high/low explosive), again the sky is the limit. These low explosive initiation systems components can be used to perform numerous functions; like- open, dispense, disperse, eject (up, down, forward, rearward, sideways), arm, delay, initiate, puncture, mix, extend, spin, etc, etc. <br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01718716337874488769noreply@blogger.com