tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post2491916954264723857..comments2024-03-28T15:22:57.131+00:00Comments on Who Attacked Ghouta?: Response to New Brown Moses TheoryAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16560859391032391947noreply@blogger.comBlogger83125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-33702505060185910742021-07-08T06:08:02.517+01:002021-07-08T06:08:02.517+01:00Buy Registered Driver’s License Online,
Where i C...Buy Registered Driver’s License Online, <br />Where i Can Buy Driver’s License online, (DL)<br /> Buy real registered Passport online, <br />Buy a Real Registered ID Card Online.<br /><br />https://web.facebook.com/buyrealregistereddriverslicenseonline/<br /><br />https://buyregistereddocuments.com/ <br /><br />Email: sales@buyregistereddocuments.com <br /><br />Chat on WhatsApp with +380 66 459 0738<br /><br />Contact Email : Meghangen834@gmail.com<br /><br />buy registered driver license online,<br />Buy Austria Driver License Online,<br />Buy Queensland Australia Driver License Online,<br />Buy Victoria Australia Driver License Online,<br />Buy Ireland Driver License Online,<br />Buy Italy Driver License Online,<br />Buy Espana | Spain Driver License Online,<br />Buy Quebec Canada Driver License Online,<br />Buy Germany Driver License Online,<br />Buy United Kingdom Driver License Online,<br /><br /><a href="https://buyregistereddocuments.com/product-category/buy-registered-driver-license-online/" rel="nofollow">Buy registered driver license online </a><br /><br /><br /> <a href="https://buyregistereddocuments.com/product/queensland-australia-driver-license/" rel="nofollow">Australia Driver's License </a> <br /><br /><br /><br /><a href="javascript:void(0);" rel="nofollow">Czech Republic Driver License </a> <br /><br /><br /><br /><a href="javascript:void(0);" rel="nofollow">Austria Driver License</a> <br /><br /><br /><br /><a href="javascript:void(0);" rel="nofollow">Australia Driver License</a> <br /><br /><br /><br /><a href="javascript:void(0);" rel="nofollow">Ireland Driver License</a> <br /><br /><br /><br /><a href="javascript:void(0);" rel="nofollow">Buy Italy Driver License online</a> <br /><br /><br /><br /> <a href="https://buyregistereddocuments.com/product/espana-spain-driver-license/" rel="nofollow">Buy Espana | Spain Driver License online</a> <br /><br /><br /><br /> <a href="https://buyregistereddocuments.com/product/cyprus-driver-license/" rel="nofollow">Buy Cyprus Driver License online</a> <br /><br /><br /><br /> <a href="https://buyregistereddocuments.com/product/quebec-canada-driver-license/" rel="nofollow">Buy Quebec Canada Driver License online</a> <br /><br /><br /><br /> <a href="https://buyregistereddocuments.com/product/ontario-canada-driver-license/" rel="nofollow">Buy Ontario Canada Driver License online</a> <br /><br /><br /><br /> <a href="https://buyregistereddocuments.com/product/germany-driver-license/" rel="nofollow">Buy Germany Driver License online</a> <br /><br /><br /><br /> <a href="https://buyregistereddocuments.com/product/united-kingdom-driver-license/" rel="nofollow">Buy United Kingdom Driver License online</a> <br /><br /><br /><br /> <a href="https://buyregistereddocuments.com/product/lithuania-driver-license/" rel="nofollow">Buy Lithuania Driver License online</a> <br /><br /><br /><br /> <a href="https://buyregistereddocuments.com/product/finland-driver-license/" rel="nofollow">Buy Finland Driver License online</a> <br /><br /><br /><br /> <a href="https://buyregistereddocuments.com/product/czech-republic-driver-license/" rel="nofollow">Buy Czech Republic Driver License online</a> <br /><br /><br /><br /> <a href="https://buyregistereddocuments.com/product/estonia-driver-license/" rel="nofollow">Buy Estonia Driver License online</a> <br /><br /><br /><br /> <a href="https://buyregistereddocuments.com/product/sweden-driver-license/" rel="nofollow">Buy Sweden Driver License Online</a> ,<br /><br /><br /><br /> <a href="https://buyregistereddocuments.com/product/azerbaijan-driver-license/" rel="nofollow">Buy Azerbaijan Driver License online</a> <br /><br /><br /><br /> <a href="https://buyregistereddocuments.com/product/armenia-driver-license/" rel="nofollow">Buy Armenia Driver License online</a> <br /><br /><br /><br /> <a href="https://buyregistereddocuments.com/product/ukraine-driver-license/" rel="nofollow">Buy Ukraine Driver License online</a> Real Register Documents Onlinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17689611304335460925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-37281750399094973662021-04-17T19:10:26.344+01:002021-04-17T19:10:26.344+01:00SSD Solution Cleaning Lab is the best and Unique p...SSD Solution Cleaning Lab is the best and Unique producer of HIGH QUALITY Undetectable counterfeit Banknotes. With over a billion of our products circulating around the world. We offer only original high-quality counterfeit currency NOTES. We ship worldwide and our bank notes are top nocth Grade A +++ and cannot be detected by any laser machine.Our production process .Get your authentic banknotes ,SSD chemical solution and activation powder now .They are top notch and be used anywhere.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><a href="https://ssdsolutioncleaninglab.com/" rel="nofollow">ssd solution online</a><br><br /><a href="https://ssdsolutioncleaninglab.com/shop/" rel="nofollow">buy ssd solution online</a><br><br /><a href="https://ssdsolutioncleaninglab.com/product-category/activation-powder-chemical-for-sale/" rel="nofollow">order ssd solution online</a><br><br /><a href="https://ssdsolutioncleaninglab.com/product-category/buy-high-quality-ssd-solution-for-cleaning-black-money-online/" rel="nofollow">legit counterfeit money for sale</a><br><br /><a href="https://ssdsolutioncleaninglab.com/product-category/buy-high-quality-undetectable-counterfeit-money-online/" rel="nofollow">can you buy counterfeit money online</a><br><br>Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11242778223836085318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-36256948579836523412013-12-29T02:39:41.266+00:002013-12-29T02:39:41.266+00:00What is needed is a list of questions drafted up a...What is needed is a list of questions drafted up and emailed to these two gentlemen in the hope they would answer.<br /><br />Specific questions such as asking them to show their range analysis workings etc.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09489652909761357041noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-56013139148638689832013-12-29T00:58:08.226+00:002013-12-29T00:58:08.226+00:00And as comment, their report is pretty deficient. ...And as comment, their report is pretty deficient. In particular they haven't appreciated the mechanical outer shell and have blithely stated the OD is 122mm when it is appreciably larger - and would have to be to accommodate a 120mm OD rocket motor.<br /><br />They also haven't shown their working in their range analysis and in particular how they managed to get such a large range extension with a (non-existent) nosecone.<br /><br />I'd have to give this analysis a D grade.<br /><br />CJ Chiver article at<br /><br />http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/29/world/middleeast/new-study-refines-view-of-sarin-attack-in-syria.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-57879384387760839512013-12-29T00:49:24.592+00:002013-12-29T00:49:24.592+00:00New Postol Report with range estimates of chemical...New Postol Report with range estimates of chemical volcanos<br /><br />http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/12/29/world/middleeast/rockets-document.html?ref=middleeastAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-72562009678917802332013-12-24T10:59:37.021+00:002013-12-24T10:59:37.021+00:00Sorry for the late reply. Lost track of this.
I t...Sorry for the late reply. Lost track of this.<br /><br />I think the launch location currently suspected in the field west of irbin is far enough from the Syrian forces to launch 12 rockets at night. Seems to be more like 1500m from them.<br /><br />The problem with UMLACA launches are the heavy rockets (over 130 kg). They are loaded by crane, and there always seems to be another tuck nearby. My understanding is that it's not suited for "fast in fast out" operations but more like a few hours to set up. It just doesn't make sense that the SAA would bring UMLACAs to this contested zone when it could launch advanced chemical weapons safely from a base.<br /><br />The idea of the government having an off-the-books weapon is the "double false flag" theory, which matches the evidence but makes little sense, since there was no propaganda effort by the government to implicate the opposition.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16560859391032391947noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-5794475010413847612013-12-13T00:17:43.875+00:002013-12-13T00:17:43.875+00:00Does this change anything:
U.N. confirms chemical...Does this change anything:<br /><br />U.N. confirms chemical arms were used repeatedly in Syria<br /><br />http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/12/us-syria-crisis-chemical-un-idUSBRE9BB1AJ20131212<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-5126917421749485772013-12-12T06:29:49.379+00:002013-12-12T06:29:49.379+00:00Bruce,
You haven't mentioned the links provid...Bruce,<br /><br />You haven't mentioned the links provided to videos of insurgent fighting bases within metres of Kenzi in the relevant period.<br /><br />Do you accept your statement <br /><br />"they controlled the area to 400m out or more from that axis on either side continually through this period." [referring to Kenzi]<br /><br />Is wrong?<br /><br />An inspection of the newsanna channel and the ANNA homepage shows most videos are uploaded within a day or so of being taken. Not so much the internal video meta-data but the descriptions such as<br /><br />"Published on Aug 19, 2013<br />Another brief summary of the situation in Syria for 18 August 2013."<br /><br />There are actually two classes of uploads. The initial Russian language upload and then an English subtitles version days later.<br /><br />There are also an awful lot of copies uploaded at later dates, but sticking with the newsanna channel gets the primary uploads and associated metadata.<br /><br />Unless you can prove otherwise using primary sources it seems that newsanna videos lag 1-3 days behind real-time and up to a week later with English subtitles.<br /><br />Which brings us back to topic. 6th Tishreen through Kenzi and then to the canal was heavily contested on August 21 based on large amounts of primary evidence before during, and after August 21.<br /><br />Brown Moses made the fallacious comment that everything West of the [Eastern Qaboun] bus station at was in Government hands (at the same time implying everything East of that was in insurgent hands). He was wrong on the Western comment as we know for certain that insurgents occupied the Industrial school and areas around the Power station. In fact the Power station and the *other* Al-Qaboun bus station were the scene of heavy fighting including both sides of Kenzi.<br /><br />Your primary narrative fails because there were no clear transit lines along Kenzi on August 21. Nor in fact was 6th Tishreen safe, nor was the Southern Bypass - this is all based on primary evidence.<br /><br />Unless you can come up with another mechanism for getting unarmoured trucks and men to the Eastern part of North Jobar on the night of August 20/21 then that theory is basically defunct.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-47589310381918767602013-12-12T04:05:13.234+00:002013-12-12T04:05:13.234+00:00Rejoinders:
1) Charles, you haven't offered a...Rejoinders:<br /><br />1) Charles, you haven't offered any proof the ANNA videos are not misdated, just your theory that they couldn't be. Where's your evidence? This ANNA stuff isn't news, it's war porn, it doesn't matter to the viewer when they were taken. No one in Abkhazia is tracking the block-by-block progression through a Damascus suburb. And remember you're not even going by the air dates, but by the dates they were posted on YouTube. There's all kinds of reasons that could lag events. Also notice that a lot of the series at least as they appear on Youtube seem to appear out of order. Certainly the ones posted in October and November seem to be enjoying unseasonably summery weather for that time of year it gets cloudy and rainy in Damascus in the late fall. The site in question that did the analysis gave their estimate of the dates the videos were made, based in part on understanding better than we do what the voices are saying, I suspect, and you haven't offered any real evidence they're wrong. Which means your estimates about when there were rebel fighting bases on the Kenzi road also have no validity for the moment. Those particular videos could very well have been shot earlier in August.<br /><br />Your one dateable example is related to the Aug. 21 attacks themselves. Well, of course, now that one IS news and that will be posted soon after airing. That doesn't mean any of the other war-porny ones are.<br /><br />Your other videos showing interdiction on the M5 are pretty much beside the point. I don't think there was any dispute that the M5 could be interdicted by mortar or recoilless rifle from the Zamalka side, all along its length. But a 2,000m Volcano is ALWAYS going to be in potential interdiction range of those systems, wherever it's used. And yet somehow they are still being used... No, you would need to establish physical occupation of the west side of that cloverleaf around the date in question to rule out the government launch scenario.<br /><br />S.W., your calculated launch location has a huge CEP. Assuming we were looking at the west side of the cloverleaf as a launch location, you're only 600m from the building I called OP1, effective automatic weapon range. It's fair to say hostile occupation of that building would preclude launch from anywhere in your likely location bubble west of the M5.<br /><br />I was not connecting "off the books" to "double false flag." (I think you mean "reverse false flag" there, a double false flag would be if the government was trying to convince the world that the rebels didn't do it.) I'm just saying that if you're trying to conceal a revitalized CW program, you're may feel precluded from using any weapons the world already knows you have and will look for alternatives.<br /><br />In the end, it doesn't matter what evidence you have for rebel sarin use. If we grant those buildings were in government hands on that night, your rebel-use scenario is, I am afraid, extremely implausible.<br /><br />I mean, think about what you're asking people to believe if that were the case. That rebels arranged a theft of the government munitions they needed; that they filled that with a staggering amount of moderately good quality sarin that they made in some nearby rebel-held area. That they had uniforms, passwords, whatever to allow them to occupy a launch position within LMG range at night of the best unit in the Syrian army with large vehicles. That they were able to avoid detection throughout that operation, even though they were firing missiles that even the worst tactical operations centre would notice and check against their fires plan for that night in a second. And that they would be able to resist the urge, if they'd already gotten that masterful drop on the Republican Guards, to turn the rockets and kill a totally surprised enemy in large numbers, but stick to the plan of murdering their own supporters with them instead. Just so we're all clear on the hypothesis that you say "matches all the evidence well."Bruce_Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12472924925251707163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-73748938547274516892013-12-12T02:12:13.873+00:002013-12-12T02:12:13.873+00:00Sasa,
The cloverleaf is less than 3000m from the ...Sasa,<br /><br />The cloverleaf is less than 3000m from the Southernmost UN inspected splash. Depending on which bit of it you use it's of the order of 2500m-2600m. The fly-road off the Southern bypass gets as close as 2200m - and then there is the Southern bypass itself.<br /><br />However, We have video evidence that SAA pickets on those road sections had been under attack for some time. For example uploaded August 16,<br /><br />"Battalion Artillery Brigade Mujahideen Gota targeting barrier on the Southern Highway mortar and injuries directly"<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFGfC1DccM4<br /><br />"Artillery Battalion of the Mujahideen Brigade Gota Bsthdav the barrier on the Southern Highway 08/12/2013"<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkcjROAdKsE<br /><br />and<br /><br />"The destruction of a tank on the Southern Highway t72 Brigade and the Mujahedeen Brigades capital Gota Gota 06/24/2013"<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilVv9i_dxcM<br /><br />and finally this which I think is on the cloverleaf at 33°32'29.65" N 36°21'04.41" E (corrections gratefully accepted)<br /><br />"Gota Mujahedeen Brigade Artillery Battalion hit the barrier system on the Southern Highway mortar cannon 14/09/2013"<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AN0GsAR3h_o<br /><br />This location seems to be a favourite attack point for months prior.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-61156487939373245062013-12-12T01:15:58.269+00:002013-12-12T01:15:58.269+00:00Bruce,
First of all I want to say it's great ...Bruce,<br /><br />First of all I want to say it's great to have you here. I don't think we ever had a contributor who knows the evidence and supported the regime-attack scenario. Your input could be very helpful, and I hope you stay and contribute. Ideally, we can write together a scenario to put here: http://whoghouta.blogspot.com/2013/10/suggesting-scenarios.html<br /><br />As to the specific issues:<br />>>the "secure area" argument works against both government and rebel hypotheses<br />I don't think so. Our calculated launch location is more than 1km from the advancing SAA forces in Qaboun, and even those are units focused on short-range urban warfare. However, the SAA units are surrounded by rebel snipers in surrounding buildings.<br /><br />>>it's likely there have been lots of launches that were not filmed<br />I agree. However, it's clear that an UMLACA launch is not well-suited for front lines. We have several videos of launches (including 120mm) and they involve two trucks and several people operating in the open.<br />And it's not like the government doesn't have other options - they have long-range chemical artillery, and a wide range of long-range chemical rockets. Anyone claiming that the SAA worked its way to Qaboun to launch these improvised non-binary chemical weapons must also explain this weird choice.<br /><br />>>an attempt to develop an "off-the-books" weapon<br />This is the double-false-flag scenario I suggested (same link). The main problem with it is that the government clearly had no plan to implicate the rebels. For weeks they just said "we don't know what happened there", and provided no fabricated evidence. They were clearly unprepared for the world's response.<br /><br />>>vehicles running down the M5 or up 6th Tishreen to that cloverleaf at night and launching<br />The cloverleaf is over 3 km from the UN impact site, which is beyond the UMLACA range.<br /><br />Additionally, we still need to explain the low-grade sarin and the liwa al-islam videos.<br /><br />A rebel-attack scenario matches all this evidence well. Its two main holes are:<br />1. You need to assume UMLACAs were looted - definitely reasonable.<br />2. The opposition had to produce a ton of sarin - This is by far the biggest gap, but we have very strong evidence to support it: low-grade sarin, the al-nusra arrest in Turkey, Del-Ponte, Hersh, Khan Al-Assal, the pre-ghouta liwa al-islam sarin video and more.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16560859391032391947noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-80232147805504517882013-12-11T22:18:17.633+00:002013-12-11T22:18:17.633+00:00Bruce,
A few known datapoints to supplement your ...Bruce,<br /><br />A few known datapoints to supplement your narrative(s). Much of this will be prepared into a battle-map centred on August 21 'some time soon'.<br /><br />- ANNA turnaround is same-day or next day. See <br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srmvYhUY6Z8 where events on August 21/22 are reported no later than August 23.<br /><br />If you have other datapoints showing a longer turn-around please supply them using primary data - as opposed to secondary sources like Osmint. As a comment, ANNA is a news organisation, not a history channel. They make their money from publishing up-to-date news.<br /><br />The area South of 6th Tishreen and especially Kenzi and South contained multiple insurgent fighting bases on August 21 and days on either side. e.g. <br /><br />Industrial school next to Army Base http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HO8ywh7fIjM<br /><br />or Power Station on Kenzi http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekxl8mgROuM<br /><br />Mortar and sniper fighting position East of Army Base just off Kenzi e.g. Sniping http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXwS7j1lNNA or Mortars http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBiN9vg2Kks&feature=youtu.be<br /><br />So, based on this it is not possible to say <br /><br />"they controlled the area to 400m out or more from that axis on either side continually through this period."<br /><br />As I said, I'll prepare a battle-map and database using primary sources and publish it in due course, but just from the few videos I've scanned there is continual insurgent interdiction on all major transport routes in the Jobar/Qabon nexus.<br /><br />Regrettably most of the rest of your comments on the topic are theoretical, and as we've seen in a couple of instances here, incorrect. Independent primary source data-points may help.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-65732621058985261632013-12-11T19:35:44.733+00:002013-12-11T19:35:44.733+00:00S.W. : longer comments extend below, but a couple ...S.W. : longer comments extend below, but a couple specific points on your last comment.<br /><br />If we accept Republican Guard Div eyes-on the likeliest point of origin on the night in question as likely (which I would argue at this point), the "secure area" argument works against both government and rebel hypotheses, so it's a wash. For that matter, so does the "not that disciplined" argument: the rebel-launch hypothesis becomes one of why they would pull off perhaps the greatest special operation in history since the Trojan Horse, but never felt the urge with Syria's elite unit right there and them able to get within 500m with impunity to, you know, sarin the hell out of it instead. A plausible rebel use effectively hinges on proving there were NOT Syrian forces in strength in that area on the night in question, despite it having been confirmed they were there immediately before and after Aug. 21.<br /><br />I would also suggest that "we have never seen an UMLACA launch" under condition x" really means "we have never seen an UMLACA launch that was filmed" under condition x. Rocket artillery by its nature is meant to move fast in, fast out, and it's likely there have been lots of launches that were not filmed, because they were too risky, too fast, too dark, etc. Also, I think we need to discount any footage involving the larger, 240mm rocket-based Volcanoes. Those could have very different setup and launch characteristics, as well as range. We need to focus on just the 122mm rocket-based ones when assessing time to deploy, etc.<br /><br />I think we will need more information on what inspectors finally destroy before we assess that no weapons were moved,, and that that matters. It is plausible the creation of chemical IRAMs was in part an attempt to develop an "off-the-books" weapon in addition to the ones that were on known inventories, in an effort to increase their potential deployability. The belief that all the previously known, non-improvised chemical munitions can be accounted for in itself would not in itself rule out deployment of a chemical agent using a modified homemade rocket type by the government.Bruce_Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12472924925251707163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-12793080720768237542013-12-11T13:51:11.827+00:002013-12-11T13:51:11.827+00:00Charles, the video publication dates clearly lag t...Charles, the video publication dates clearly lag the action, I wouldn't read too much into them (they state in the narrative they were taken in August and "published over the following months"). OSIMINT's assessment was that the Northward attack OP (OP1) occurred "prior to late August," and the southward attack was "from Aug. 21 onward." That brackets the key date.<br /><br />Look at that Kenzi Road again, south and parallel to the 6th Tishreen highway. That was clearly the Guard Div's center axis, moving West to East. Evidence is they controlled the area to 400m out or more from that axis on either side continually through this period. That would make moving guns or rocket vehicles to the cloverleaf practically an administrative move. Totally doable and safe at night. That then gives them the cloverleaf as a launch pad.<br /><br />So on the night of the 21st, having established a safe zone between the Tishreen highway and the canal to the south of the Kenzi road at the edge of Jobar, they come down from the mountain, drive Kenzi out to the cloverleaf, fire and return the same way, as part of their prep bombardment for the next phase.<br /><br />There's no evidence those buildings were only seized on the day of the attacks being filmed. That's not how these things work. First you secure your line of departure and assembly areas, deploy the troops into initial, safe positions (probably the night before) then you move out at H-Hour. The videos start when the action starts: we shouldn't assume dashes under contact in daylight, because that's what we see, are the only kind of tactical movement in this sector. If they lost control of those 3 buildings for any period they'd be filled with booby traps the next day and they'd have to take them back again. No, Occam and military experience says they had continual occupation in that area in late August.<br /><br />The argument about vehicles in the open actually works more strongly against the "rebels did it" argument if you assume those buildings are in Guard Div possession on Aug. 21. You've got a clear line of sight from those 3 buildings onto the cloverleaf that has been identified as the most likely launchpoint, 1000m or less away, with government artillery on call. That makes rebels being able to move large vehicles with impunity in that location very unlikely, too.<br /><br />The most plausible Syrian army unit, given that one had to be involved, in the use of such a key asset is the army's most elite force. That's just basic Bayesian reasoning, again. Assuming the Syrian army was involved at all, these weapons would have to have been used in conjunction with some unit that was the "landholder" of the launch position in question, in service of somebody's tactical aim. The Republican Guard Division was certainly using loaned air power along with its own artillery to suppress Zamalka in this period to support its operations in Jobar, and requesting support from a chemical weapons unit seems no different from a military tasking perspective, so the fact they don't "own" any isn't really important. As the landholder, the Div commander almost certainly accepted or authorized their launch from his Area of Operations.Bruce_Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12472924925251707163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-18763223132252761052013-12-11T11:39:24.781+00:002013-12-11T11:39:24.781+00:00Very interesting discussion. We need to collect al...Very interesting discussion. We need to collect all the information we know about government and rebel locations during that time, and see what makes sense.<br /><br />Bruce_R - Note that it's not enough to show there are government forces within range. They need to have a secure area where they can safely operate two trucks in the open. We have never seen an UMLACA launch from the battlefield - it's always from an army base.<br />Also, in your blog you assume the Republican Guard has chemical weapons. That is very unlikely. These are strategic weapons which both Syria and the US claimed were not moved. There is also no mention from the OPCW of collecting weapons from army units.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16560859391032391947noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-90207935898743781932013-12-11T08:52:40.255+00:002013-12-11T08:52:40.255+00:00Rereading the Osmint site they appear to have got ...Rereading the Osmint site they appear to have got their dates mixed up for "Splitting Zamalka and Jobar" They talk about preparation bombardment starting on August 23 but the actual battles they discuss occur in late September early October. I suspect they got the August date wrong?<br /><br />On the other hand this video published on August 23 by ANNA shows bombardment and an assault on August 21/22<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srmvYhUY6Z8 (use captions)<br /><br />Has this been geolocated?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-26181513527312310452013-12-11T08:27:29.490+00:002013-12-11T08:27:29.490+00:00First time I've seen your blog. You've mad...First time I've seen your blog. You've made a much better fist of it than most. Good on you!<br /><br />However,<br /><br />The Osmint record is analysis only of the ANNA videos. In particular they refer to "Fight for a School in Jobar" on October 16 and onwards. We know from the video I linked above that there was fighting between insurgents and Government forces in the school on August 22. The point being that Osmint is only a brief glimpse rather than a canonical record.<br /><br />The Osmint article is unclear but it appears to say 'Northward Attack' was started on September 6. Unless you are aware of another 'Northward Attack' then all data referring to it including OP1 is not relevant to August 21.<br /><br />You refer to operation splitting Zamalka and Jobar. That didn't start till August 23, so while it doesn't eliminate related keypoints OP2 and OP3 they have less value for August 21.<br /><br />OP2 and OP3 would have been established concurrent with the advance of troops. (Possibly OP2 first and OP3 later after advances?) Again they were established on the every edge of or inside a battlezone. They also reflect Amund Hesbol's chart of a broad offensive from Government positions Southwards.<br /><br />Incidentally I have videos of insurgent attacks in the Southern bypass around that time against "Shabiha" positions. It seems parts of the Southern bypass were to some extent in (shaky) Government hands around August 21.<br /><br />You have the merit of a reasonable range (finally!) but assumption of undisputed possession is highly questionable, as does the safety of the necessary supply line - I guess along 6th Tishreen - for the launchers and support trucks.<br /><br />Finally, my standard whinge is that no insurgents reported missile launches in Jobar/South Qabon despite launches from the special forces base in central Qabon being reported on the same night.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-23295899148621942222013-12-11T06:11:44.877+00:002013-12-11T06:11:44.877+00:00Another possibility is that the launch location wa...Another possibility is that the launch location was in Republican Guard held territory around 33.5377N, 36.3436W. The ANNA videos Osimint analysed were shot from office buildings in that area and describe it as a staging area both before and after Aug. 21. It's also in your pink zone in Charles' graphic at http://pasteboard.co/1IdzF5h7.jpg. Staging and forming-up areas imply daytime control and some level of standoff. I think you have to consider the likelihood of rocket vehicles running down the M5 or up 6th Tishreen to that cloverleaf at night and launching. Range fits, ground situation fits... it's not crazy. I don't think the UN azimuth figure is salvageable, but you can still reject that and any extended range theories and still come up with a plausible Guard-held launch location in that vicinity. More here: http://www.snappingturtle.net/flit/archives/2013_12_10.html#006908Bruce_Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12472924925251707163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-90228161085697705842013-12-11T06:10:05.653+00:002013-12-11T06:10:05.653+00:00I've put this on the Hersh page, but it's ...I've put this on the Hersh page, but it's more relevant here.<br /><br />We have video evidence that there was combat on August 20 near the power station at the West end of Kenzi<br /><br />http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=33.528338&lon=36.336315&z=16&m=b&show=/28030629/Electricity-Station---Southern-Branch&search=jobar<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekxl8mgROuM<br /><br />We have video evidence the insurgents were in possession of the Industrial School literally next-door to the Army base on August 22 and defending it against SAA attack.<br /><br />http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=33.531727&lon=36.346990&z=16&m=b&show=/28030583/Industrial-Schools&search=jobar<br /><br />"Very violent clashes in the industrial school in the neighborhood of Qaboun and attempt to thwart the infiltration of shabiha 22/08/2013"<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HO8ywh7fIjM<br /><br />The obvious conclusion is that the area south of Kenzi and West of the Southern Bypass was in hot conflict between August 20 and August 22 inclusive.<br /><br />I have found no video from engagements South of the Canal that runs along the Southern edge of the industrial/military areas so it is likely that was in insurgent hands on August 21.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-62522695465945820892013-12-09T10:07:17.846+00:002013-12-09T10:07:17.846+00:00Further to the 1.3 second burn time. This analysis...Further to the 1.3 second burn time. This analysis by the Egyptian armed forces of a 'typical' 122mm rocket uses a 1.67 second burn time.<br /><br />It's also a jolly good read for amateur missileers.<br /><br />http://www.mtc.edu.eg/asat13/pdf/fm04.pdf<br /><br />It seems likely there are other variants of the motor that have different (longer) burn times and (lower) acceleration - e.g. jammer versions like the 9M519.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-20539143833983349512013-12-09T05:09:16.188+00:002013-12-09T05:09:16.188+00:00In the video I linked the missile launch at 23.7 b...In the video I linked the missile launch at 23.7 burned out at 25.0. i.e. 1.3 seconds.<br /><br />However there are Grad missiles and Grad missiles with different lengths and burning times from the same manufacturer and different manufacturers.<br /><br />If they were shooting at the water tower, which is allegedly in Government hands, then that would have been an extreme danger-close fire mission. It also says that the vicinity of the water tower was heavily contestedAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-74790543615935477092013-12-09T03:29:30.639+00:002013-12-09T03:29:30.639+00:00I think Grad have a shorter burn time of around 1 ...I think Grad have a shorter burn time of around 1 second. You can see here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AodIVw9RtBw at 0:30 how soon they stop burning.<br /><br />The distance to the water tower is also 1.8-1.9 km, which is a good match to a Volcano<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16560859391032391947noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-22054515704044812612013-12-08T14:56:37.888+00:002013-12-08T14:56:37.888+00:00Hersh confirms
http://www.lrb.co.uk/2013/12/08/sey...Hersh confirms<br />http://www.lrb.co.uk/2013/12/08/seymour-m-hersh/whose-sarin<br />See the comments of b at www.moonofalabama.org<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-14932381338039240672013-12-08T14:33:56.178+00:002013-12-08T14:33:56.178+00:00Oops - Syria 'Grad Missiles' are at
http:...Oops - Syria 'Grad Missiles' are at<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAvrc1Pop1k<br /><br />Notice the smoke and burn time are very similar to the 122mm Volcano.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4304138063571120909.post-63292137310184694512013-12-08T14:30:33.965+00:002013-12-08T14:30:33.965+00:00Perpendicular? Perhaps Tangential?
Re viewing the...Perpendicular? Perhaps Tangential?<br /><br />Re viewing the video several times I can see that one visual interpretation is tangential - as compared to my first interpretation as 'away'.<br /><br />To confirm it's tangential requires further information not necessarily seen in this video. The break in vision between the launch and supposed splash is a problem - especially the time gap.<br /><br />Incidentally, here's a video of launches from Mezzeh airport that is labelled 122mm missiles but is more likely 107mm that shows a water tower very similar to the one attracting attention in your video<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxTD7kzGP1M<br /><br />Here are 'Grad' missiles being launched in Syria. Their signature is very similar to the the ones in your video. Are you sure your video is a Volcano rather than a 'Grad' missile?<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com